Agent-based modeling for an end-of-life power battery cross-regional recycling system and subregional policy analysis: A case study in China

Abstract

Informal recycling of end-of-life electric vehicle batteries has caused severe environmental pollution and tax losses. Linear models and static strategies have difficulty capturing complex relationships and regional heterogeneity. Therefore, we aim to suggest an optimal subregional joint policy under fiscal constraints. This study uses agent-based modeling with geographic information systems to construct a cross-regional recycling system model that assesses the economic and environmental effects of policies. Based on actual data, the model considers four subsystems, multiple region types, two battery types, and six stakeholders. The results show that: (1) The optimal subregional joint policy can increase the average formal recycling rate from 28.44 % to 48.58 % and achieve an emission reduction rate of 19.81 %; (2) In underdeveloped regions, allocating 70–80 % of fiscal funds to supervision can achieve optimal economic and environmental benefits; and (3) For the local governments with few formal sectors, investing in a unit subsidy exceeding $1.4/kWh will diminish economic efficiency. Provincial governments in economically developed areas with formal business clusters should provide higher subsidies, while other regions should allocate more fiscal expenditure for supervision. This cross-regional recycling system model can improve solid waste management in countries with large areas and decentralized facilities.