Abstract
ABSTRACTWe compare the GLAMEPS system, a pan-European limited area ensemble prediction system, with ECMWF's EPS over Belgium for an extended period from March 2010 until the end of December 2010. In agreement with a previous study, we find GLAMEPS scores considerably better than ECMWF's EPS. To compute the economic value, we introduce a new relative economic value score for continuous forecasts. The added value of combining the GLAMEPS system with the LAEF system over Belgium is studied. We conclude that adding LAEF to GLAMEPS increases the value, although the increase is small compared to the improvement of GLAMEPS to ECMWF's EPS. As an added benefit we find that the combined GLAMEPS-LAEF multi-EPS system is more robust, that is, it is less vulnerable to the (accidental) removal of one of its components.
Highlights
The last decade several mesoscale EPS systems have been developed in Europe running over domains that cover large parts of Europe
The systems are based on different limited area models, most of them developed within the European Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) consortia
By robustness we mean the following: suppose one of both systems will operationally drop out, what will be the loss in quality/value for that particular run? In order to calculate the economic value, we introduce a new relative economic value score suitable for ‘continuous’ forecasts
Summary
We list the following systems in Europe: the GLAMEPS (Iversen et al, 2011), the ALADIN HUNEPS (Horanyi et al, 2011), LAEF (Wang et al, 2011a), SREPS (Garcıa-Moya et al, 2011), MOGREPS (Bowler et al, 2008), the NORLAMEPS (Aspelien et al, 2011) and the COSMO-LEPS (Montani et al, 2011) These EPS systems are developed in the international collaborations of the European Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) consortia. The aim of the present paper was (1) to verify the quality of the GLAMEPS system, (2) study the added economic value when adding the LAEF model output to the GLAMEPS and (3) study the robustness of the combined system.
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