Abstract
In this paper the present state of the establishment of a LAMEPS (Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System) system for Central Europe is described. Sensitivity studies were performed in order to explore whether or not it is possible to optimize the existing ARPEGE global ensemble system for Central Europe by changing the optimization area and optimization time used for the global singular vector computations. With this purpose several optimization areas and times were defined and tested through case studies and longer test periods. Verification results show that the proper choice of the singular vector optimization domain and optimization time can increase the spread and on average improves the skill of the ensemble for the Central European area. This conclusion was found to be valid for the global forecasts and the limited area predictions (i.e. the simple downscaling of the global model) as well. The experiments also demonstrate that the dynamical downscaling in itself does not result in significantly better skill. Therefore the computation of mesoscale initial perturbations might be desirable for a more efficient short-range ensemble system. Along this line research started in the field of singular vectors computed inside the limited area model ALADIN.
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