ADAPTED BOX-COUNTING METHOD FOR ASSESSMENT OF THE FRACTAL DIMENSION OF FINANCIAL TIME SERIES

Abstract

This paper continues research within the framework of the scientific direction in econophysics at the Department of Information Systems and Mathematical Methods in Economics of the faculty of Economics of PSU. Modeling and prediction of financial time series is quite a perspective area of research, because it allows participants of financial processes to reduce risks and make effective decisions. For example, we could research financial processes with the help of fractal analysis. In the article there is studied and worked out in detail one of the methods of fractal analysis of financial time series – the box-counting method for assessment of the fractal dimension. This method is often used in studies conducted by domestic authors, but the authors do not delve into the characteristics and problems of using the box-counting method for analysis of time series, that means that the answers to the interested questions have not yet been given. The main problem is that, as a rule, the analyzed object in the tasks of applying the box-counting method to time series is a computer image of the plot of series. In the article there is proposed the procedure of adaptation of the box-counting method for assessment of the fractal dimension of time series, the procedure does not require the formation of a computer image of the plot. In the article there is considered following difficulties developed from this adaptation: 1) high sensitivity of the resulting estimation of the dimension to the input parameters of the method (the ratio of the sides of the covered by cells plane with the plot; the used range of lengths of the side of the cell; the number of partitions of the plane into cells); 2) the non-obviousness of choosing the optimal values ​​of these parameters. In the article there are analyzed approaches to the selection of these parameters that were proposed by other authors, and there are determined the most suitable approaches for the adapted box-counting method. Also there are developed unique methods for determining the ratio of the sides of the plane with the plot. In the paper there is written the computer program that implements the developed method, and this program is tested on the generated data. The study obtained the following results. The fact of sensitivity of the adapted box-counting method to input parameters is confirmed, that indicates the high importance of the correct choice of these parameters. According to the study, there is found out inability of the proposed methods of automatic determination the ratio of the sides of the plane in relation to artificial time series. There are obtained the most precise (in a statistical sense) estimates of fractal dimension, those found by means of the adapted box-counting method, with the fixed ratio of the sides 1:1. According to comparing the adapted box-counting method and R/S analysis, there are obtained the most precise estimates by the second method (R/S analysis). Finally in the paper there are formulated the possible directions for further research: 1) comparison of the accuracy of various methods for assessment of the fractal dimension on series of different lengths; 2) comparison of the methods of fractal analysis and p-adic analysis for modeling and prediction of financial time series; 3) determination of the conditions of applicability of various methods; 4) approbation of the developed methods for determining of the ratio of the sides of the plane with the plot on real economic data.