ABNORMALITY IN THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT: CAUSES OF OCCURRENCE AND WAYS OF PREVENTING A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE ORGANIZATION

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It is known that the uncertainty of the external environment increases the proba­bility of the risk of strategy failure, so the organization determines it by analyzing the level of influence of external environmental factors of direct and indirect action. It is also known that the fact that the company's structure simultaneously meets the level of dynamism and complexity of the external environment is sometimes not taken into account by its management. The article provides an answer to the question: do we always have the opportunity to predict an anomalous event in the future when calculating the level of complexity and dynamism of the environment? That is why the goal of the article was to form an approach to the transformation of the enterprise in order to minimize the negative impact of anomalies in the external environment on the organization's activities. The article notes how it is possible to predict the future, based on knowledge of the past and how it is possible to determine the properties of the unknown on the basis of the known, attention is drawn to the fact that we are brought closer to the truth by the negative, and not only by confirming the facts, the emphasis is on the fact that it is necessary to study not only the causes and nature of success, but also failure. The article concludes that the determination of the influence of external environmental factors by the method of expert evaluations is the basis for solving the specified scientific task, as the possibility of using a genetic approach to forecast the further development of the organization and determining the relevant main design parameters depending on the level is indicated influence of this environment. It is also noted that the organization must respond in time to changes in the external environment and change the configuration in accordance with the levels of influence of factors of complexity and dynamism. In addition, attention is focused on the impossibility of the appearance of the Black Swan in the context of its exclusivity, power of influence and only retrospective predictability. The approach specified in the article provides an opportunity not only to change the structure of the enterprise in a timely manner in accordance with the conditions of the external environment and to prevent strategic fires, but, unlike existing approaches, it provides an opportunity to respond in time to the abnormality of the external environment thanks to the study of the past in the context of repeatability and non-repeatability of facts, careful analysis of hidden evidence and based on them, the formation of forecasts, taking into account the appearance of anomalies in the external environment.