A Theoretical Nonlinear Regression Model of Rainfall Surface Flow Accumulation and Basin Features in Park-Scale Urban Green Spaces Based on LiDAR Data

Abstract

Green infrastructure is imperative for efficiently mitigating flood disasters in urban areas. However, inadequate green space planning under rapid urbanization is a critical issue faced by most Chinese cities. Aimed at theoretically understanding the rainwater storage capacity and improvement potential of urban green spaces, a synthetic simulation model was developed to quantify rainfall surface flow accumulation (FA) based on the morphological factors of a flow basin: the area, circumference, maximum basin length, and stream length sum. This model consisted of applying the Urban Forest Effects-Hydrology model (UFORE-Hydro) to simulate the actual precipitation-to-surface runoff ratio through a procedure involving canopy interception, soil infiltration, and evaporation; additionally, a relatively accurate multiple flow direction-maximum downslope (MFD-md) algorithm was applied to distribute the surface flow in a highly realistic manner, and a self-built “extraction algorithm” extracted the surface runoff corresponding to each studied basin alongside four fundamental morphological parameters. The various nonlinear regression functions were assessed from both univariable and multivariable perspectives. We determined that the Gompertz function was optimal for predicting the theoretical quantification of surface FA according to the morphological features of any given basin. This article provides parametric vertical design guidance for improving the rainwater storage capacities of urban green spaces.