Abstract
In this paper, we develop a systems dynamics model of a coupled human and natural fire-prone system to evaluate changes in wildfire response policy. A primary motivation is exploring the implications of expanding the pace and scale of using wildfires as a forest restoration tool. We implement a model of a forested system composed of multiple successional classes, each with different structural characteristics and propensities for burning at high severity. We then simulate a range of alternative wildfire response policies, which are defined as the combination of a target burn rate (or inversely, the mean fire return interval) and a predefined transition period to reach the target return interval. We quantify time paths of forest successional stage distributions, burn severity, and ecological departure, and use departure thresholds to calculate how long it would take various policies to restore forest conditions. Furthermore, we explore policy resistance where excessive rates of high burn severity in the policy transition period lead to a reversion to fire exclusion policies. Establishing higher burn rate targets shifted vegetation structural and successional classes towards reference conditions and suggests that it may be possible to expand the application of wildfires as a restoration tool. The results also suggest that managers may be best served by adopting strategies that define aggressive burn rate targets but by implementing policy changes slowly over time.
Highlights
Instead of modeling S-Classes as state variables that may change in each time period, our model considers the dynamic behavior of stocks of S-Classes and the flows between them
The status quo (SQ) policy continues a trajectory of forest degradation during the 100-year policy implementation period, with the highest mean departure, mean area of UNE stock, and mean percentage of high-severity fire by area
Because of the low overall burn rate under the Status Quo (SQ) policy, the mean area burned at high severity remains comparatively low
Summary
By instead capitalizing on opportunities for expanded use of wildfire as a tool to restore forest conditions and reduce fuel hazards, where ecologically appropriate and allowable, managers can invert feedbacks, wherein wildfire can act as more of a self-regulating mechanism and may even facilitate suppression operations [6,7,8,9]. Preventative removal of vegetation (i.e., mechanical treatment or prescribed burning) to reduce hazardous fuel loads is a more common landscape risk mitigation strategy, myriad constraints. Systems 2019, 7, 49 restrict the scale of implementation, such that treatments may be insufficient to reduced hazard and risk [10,11,12,13]. The interest is in changing responses to wildfires in order to leverage natural fire as a force multiplier for landscape restoration efforts [14]
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