Satellite-Derived Mean Fire Return Intervals As Indicators Of Change In Siberia (1995–2002)

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Under current climate change scenarios, temperatures in Siberia are expected to increase, and consequently, fire is also expected to increase. Potential climate-induced change is difficult to assess in Siberia because ground-based fire data are not complete. This investigation introduces a method by which potential climate-induced change can be remotely evaluated. Mean fire return intervals are established for 58 ecosystems across Siberia using eight years of satellite-based area burned data (1995 to 2002). Mean fire return intervals should decrease under current climate change scenarios, however the results do not currently demonstrate consistent evidence of fire-induced change. The overall boreal forest mean fire return interval is lower than the published mean, inferring increased fire. Most notably, using satellite data to calculate mean fire return intervals in individual ecosystems for the entire population of fire is shown to be a viable method by which potential climate-induced land cover change can be evaluated.