Abstract

A highly seasonal rainfall pattern in the agriculturally productive region of Huabei Plain has been widely considered in China as a handicap to maximizing agricultural production. Enhancing this perception is the traditional policy of achieving provincial or regional self-sufficiency in grain production, which underlies China's production quotas. The Chinese government has decided to overcome this perceived handicap in order to meet the increasing water demands of urban populations and to achieving its grain quotas by constructing aqueducts to transport about 14 2 10 9 m 3 of water from the Dan Jiang Reservoir into the Huabei Plain. However, this engineering construction solution threatens the long-term market competitiveness of the region by driving up the cost of water relative to the value of the product, by taking too long to complete and by being unproven in its effectiveness. This solution also threatens the existing ecosystem by interfering with the natural hydrology, and it risks exacerbating the ongoing groundwater overdrafts that are contributing to the formation of numerous sinkholes and ground surface cracks in the region, as well as to the intrusion of sea water. A more certain, ecologically sound solution can be found in alternative agricultural practices and cropping systems. Reducing the winter wheat production by a relatively small acreage, combined with the increased use of water-saving irrigation systems, can more than replace the effectively usable 10 2 10 9 m 3 of water that the engineering construction project would transport via aqueducts. The recommended alternative cropping system would solve the water shortage problem immediately. This alternative would enable the government to allocate funds where they are more needed, such as to the clean-up of extensively polluted rivers and to ecological restoration, which bears on the sustainability of agriculture and food supply in China.

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