A superior extension for the Lomax distribution with application to Covid-19 infections real data

Abstract

We present a new continuous lifetime model with four parameters by combining the Lomax and the Weibull distributions. The extended odd Weibull Lomax (EOWL) distribution is what we’ll call it. This new distribution possesses several desirable properties thanks to the simple linear representation of its hazard rate function, moments, and moment -generating function, with stress-strength reliability that are provided in a simple closed forms. The parameters of the EOWL model are estimated using classical methods such as the maximum likelihood (MLE) and the maximum product of spacing (MPS) and estimated also but using a non-classical method such as Bayesian analytical approaches. Bayesian estimation is performed using the Monte Carlo Markov Chain method. Monte Carlo simulation are used to assess the effectiveness of the estimation methods throughout the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm. To illustrate the suggested distribution’s effectiveness and suitability for simulating real-world pandemics, we used three existing COVID-19 data sets from the United Kingdom, the United States of America, and Italy which are studied to serve as illustrative examples. We graphed the P-P plots and TTT plots for the proposed distribution proving its superiority in a graphical manner for modelling the three data sets in the paper.