Abstract
Coastal flooding and erosion is a key problem for coastal management, and is complicated by features arising from the combination of meteorological and morphological characteristics. Variability in the position and level of beaches introduces uncertainty into predictions of coastal flood and erosion risks. In the present study the problem of the variability of the shoreline in an embayment was addressed. A simple but efficient statistical method to estimate the mean of a crenulated-shaped bay from its equilibrium shape is proposed with input as the wave climate. The mathematical modelling is based on ensemble averaging and an equilibrium bay shape model. In this work, the effects of the coefficients in the crenulated-shaped bay on the estimation are investigated in a sequence of problems of successive generality. As a specific example, the method has been applied to Christchurch Bay in the UK. The results indicate that the ensemble average approach could provide an efficient means of estimating beach response to random wave conditions
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