A Statistical Model for the Mid-Latitude Tropopause and Jet Stream Layer

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Tropopause and level of maximum wind charts are derived from objective analyses of the 500-, 300-, 150- and 100-mb height and wind fields. Regression equations, based on 24-hr changes, are developed to permit reconstruction of the layer given the history and current 500-mb data. This new “derived” layer is examined statistically with respect to its adequacy as a three-dimensional first-guess field for the current objective analyses for this layer, and also as a method for forecasting the layer from a barotropic 500-mb prognostic chart.