Abstract
Malaria constitutes an important cause of human mortality. After 2009 Greece experienced a resurgence of malaria. Here, we develop a model-based framework that integrates entomological, geographical, social and environmental evidence in order to guide the mosquito control efforts and apply this framework to data from an entomological survey study conducted in Central Greece. Our results indicate that malaria transmission risk in Greece is potentially substantial. In addition, specific districts such as seaside, lakeside and rice field regions appear to represent potential malaria hotspots in Central Greece. We found that appropriate maps depicting the basic reproduction number, R0, are useful tools for informing policy makers on the risk of malaria resurgence and can serve as a guide to inform recommendations regarding control measures.
Highlights
Malaria is one of the well-studied vector-borne diseases in terms of its transmission and the potential for transmission’s change
In 2015 the number of malaria deaths globally were 438000 whereas 3.2 billion people being at risk, with more deaths occurring in Africa (90%), followed by South-East Asia (7%) and the Eastern Mediterranean region (2%) ([1]). (Climatic determinants are considered important for malaria, since both the disease agent (Plasmodium) and vectors (Anopheles mosquitoes) are strongly affected by climate ([3])
Risk of malaria resurgence is increased in seaside areas, areas near lakes where the Anopheles mosquito population density peaks (e.g. Chalkida), or at the Anopheles breeding habitats such as areas with paddies (e.g. Lamia)
Summary
Malaria is one of the well-studied vector-borne diseases in terms of its transmission and the potential for transmission’s change. Malaria is endemic in about 100 countries around the world, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia ([1]). It is a mosquito-borne parasitic infectious disease, transmitted through the bite of the infected female Anopheles mosquito. In 2015 the number of malaria deaths globally were 438000 whereas 3.2 billion people being at risk, with more deaths occurring in Africa (90%), followed by South-East Asia (7%) and the Eastern Mediterranean region (2%) ([1]). Global warming has been considered as a potential risk for malaria resurgence in northern hemisphere areas ([4]).
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