Abstract
The numerous choices between climate change scenarios makes decision-making difficult for the assessment of climate change impacts. Previous studies have used climate models to compare performance in terms of simulating observed climates or preserving model variability among scenarios. In this study, the Katsavounidis-Kuo-Zhang algorithm was applied to select representative climate change scenarios (RCCS) that preserve the variability among all climate change scenarios (CCS). The performance of multi-model ensemble of RCCS was evaluated for reference and future climates. It was found that RCCS was well suited for observations and multi model ensemble of all CCS. Using the RCCS under RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5, the future extreme precipitation was projected. As a result, the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation increased towards the farther future. Especially, extreme precipitation (daily maximum precipitation of 20-year return-period) during 2070-2099, was projected to occur once every 8.3-year. The RCCS employed in this study is able to successfully represent the performance of all CCS, therefore, this approach can give opportunities managing water resources efficiently for assessment of climate change impacts.
Highlights
Due to climate change, heavy rainfall events associated with meso-scale convective processes frequently occur during the East Asian summer monsoon [1,2,3]
Many studies have quantified the uncertainty among scenarios through use of a MME of climate change scenarios (CCS), and the weight of the MME has been determined by comparing the model simulations with observations over a reference period [41,42]
MME has been widely used for handling this uncertainty; the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) argued that likelihood of each model should be considered
Summary
Heavy rainfall events associated with meso-scale convective processes frequently occur during the East Asian summer monsoon [1,2,3]. The average temperature over North Korea has risen by 1.9 °C as observed over the past 100 years, which is the second highest increase worldwide. Both climate change scenarios and long-term observations have been employed in assessing the impacts from climate change. This study identified a clear decrease in summer precipitation across North Korea. The results suggested that the Annual Daily Maximum Precipitation (ADMP) in North Korea increased at four sites and decreased at three sites. North Korea is known to be under threat from climate change, and was ranked 2nd in the world in 2009 on the Global Climate Risk Index [6,7]
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