A preliminary forecast of the intensification of global and regional rice production

Abstract

Rice is the staple food that feeds nearly half of the world population (Way and Heong 1994). In the past 3 decades, the steadily increasing rice production has reduced the food shortage in Asia and the world (IRRI 2003). However, the increased use of land and pesticides aggravates the deterioration of environmental quality and human health (Altieri 1994, Heong and Escalada 1998, Tilman et al 2001). A perspective on future rice production is essential for estimating the biological and environmental impacts caused by intensive rice production and for taking appropriate measures to avoid these side effects without threatening overall food security. In this paper, seven variables related to intensive rice production were fitted with data in the past 3 decades and a forecast for the years 2005-25 was made.