Rice area mapping, yield, and production forecast for the province of Nueva Ecija using RADARSAT imagery

Abstract

Monitoring rice production is an important tool for the Government of the Philippines’ objective to achieve rice sufficiency by 2013. For decision makers to ensure that the country has an adequate rice supply, it is imperative that timely and accurate information on rice area, yield forecasts, and production be regularly updated with little or no statistical response burden to producers; this study describes a process well suited for the integration and utilization of the methodologies for rice monitoring using radar data. Currently, the national and regional rice production in the Philippines is estimated through a complex and labor-intensive process using surveys of farmers and fields. Faster, reliable, and more efficient methods are needed to monitor production because rice production is affected by seasonal crop prices, climate, and daily weather.To accurately forecast rice production in near real time, remote sensing technology was used. A rice crop monitoring application using RADARSAT imagery was initially developed and tested in 2001. This application was modified and retested in the wet season of 2007 in Muñoz and Santo Domingo, Nueva Ecija, Philippines. This application demonstrated the capability to forecast rice production over an extended region. The program also offered flexibility in its ancillary data requirements, making it suitable for a practical and operational rice monitoring program.During the wet season of 2008, the rice area in the province of Nueva Ecija was mapped, and yield and production were forecast using the developed methodology. Data gathered from this project were compared with data obtained from the Philippines Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS). The accuracy, at the provincial level, of the rice area and production estimates derived from remotely sensed data were 97.4% and 96.6%, respectively, when compared with the BAS statistical data.