A novel approach to reduce fire-induced domino effect risk by leveraging loading/unloading demands in chemical industrial parks

Abstract

Due to complexities and uncertainties, risk management of domino effects in chemical plants in operation is challenging. A global optimal risk management scheme can hardly be obtained, therefore, finding a targeted local optimal risk management scheme can be prudent. In the present study, a novel risk management approach is proposed to reduce fire-induced domino effect risk by leveraging loading/unloading demands based on risk aggregation and inventory management. The proposed approach uses the aggregation of three risk indicators as part of the risk management strategy. The first risk indicator is the loss of containment (LOC) risk of chemical installations, which indicates how likely a storage tank may cause a primary fire accident. The second risk indicator is the secondary fire accident inducing ability of chemical installations, which indicates how likely a primary tank may cause secondary fire accidents only. The third risk indicator is the inter-unit closeness degree of chemical installations, which indicates how severe the overall consequence a primary tank may cause. Combining the aggregate risk with the inventory availability of storage tanks, candidate risk management schemes are proposed based on inventory management on chemical loading/unloading demands. The optimal risk management scheme is determined based on the potential losses of fire-induced domino effects. A case study demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed methodology and risk management strategy for fire-induced domino effects.