A non-nuclear US ally’s nuclear preparedness dilemma: South Korea’s “Three-Axis System”

Abstract

ABSTRACT This article aims to encourage discussion on the dilemma of a non-nuclear US ally’s nuclear preparedness through the case of South Korea. Despite the strong demands of its own nuclear armament by the people and North Korea’s continuous and aggressive nuclear buildups, South Korea has been focusing on strengthening only its conventional options, such as the Kill Chain (preemptive strikes), KAMD (missile defence), and KMPR (conventional retaliation), in the name of the “Three-Axis System” (TAS). However, these have inherent limitations and are seriously challenged by North Korea’s developments of solid-fuel, pull-up manoeuvring, and low-trajectory missiles. As a result, South Korea turned out to be in a dilemma between harmony with its ally, the United States, and a securer nuclear defence against the North Korean nuclear threat. South Korea should do its best to increase the effectiveness of its TAS options in close consultation with the US nuclear extended deterrence. However, it needs to expand its discussion on other options, such as its own nuclear armament, without seriously damaging its alliance with the US. The United States, in turn, should participate in the discussion instead of rejecting South Korea’s options other than the TAS.