South Korea’s Defense Posture against the North Korean Nuclear Threat: Dangerous Reluctance

Abstract

This paper examines South Korea’s defense preparedness against a possible North Korean nuclear attack. It applies three options of nuclear defense: preemptive attack against North Korean nuclear weapons and facilities, interception of airborne North Korean nuclear missiles, and civil defense to reduce casualties from a nuclear explosion. North Korea may have succeeded in developing about 10 nuclear weapons and making them small and light enough to be delivered by its ballistic missiles. It is imperative for South Korea to prepare defenses against a nuclear attack in the case its diplomatic efforts and deterrence measures fail. South Korea needs to be able to conduct a preemptive strike when a North Korean nuclear attack is imminent. It should also build up its ballistic missile defense systems in order to intercept any North Korean nuclear missiles that may survive a preemptive strike. Moreover, South Korea should prepare for its civil defense by constructing blast and/or fallout shelters to help more people survive a possible nuclear explosion.