A new paradigm for estimating Russian force requirements? On Tsygichko's model of defense sufficiency

Abstract

The authors used a reconstruction of the presumed minimization algorithm underlying the Model of Defense Sufficiency proposed by Professor Tsygichko of the Russian Academy of Sience and performed a series of computational experiments for testing the implications of different assumptions about strategic/operational/ tactical mobility for Russia's force requirements and the appropriate peacetime force deployment. To this end, they used Huber's Stable Regional Force Ratio concept to transform the threat probability estimates published by Tsygichko into regional defense potentials satisfying Russia's security requirements vis‐à‐vis hypothetical threat potentials in the year 2010. The results of the experiments show that the adoption of Tygichko's defense sufficiently principle by Russian force planners would not only benefit Russia's security and budget, it would also result in an increase in the security of Russia's neighbors. They also indicate the need for super‐regional arms control agreements in order to minimize the need for preventive military action by the international community in case of serious crises between Russia and her regional neighbors. The Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Far East represent the critical regions for long‐term stability along Russia's perimeter, especially since China's cooperation is indispensible and, therefore, the cooperation of China's regional neighbors as well.