The Future of Crises in South Caucasus in the Wake of Russia-West Conflicts

Abstract

South Caucasus region due to various reasons including ethnic diversity, religions and geographical position has long been witnessing various crises such as Karabakh and south Ossetia crisis. Among these, Karabakh crisis has a direct impact on the national interests of Islamic republic of Iran; because, this crisis has been developed in the northern borders of Iran and between the two countries of Azerbaijan and Armenia that in addition to neighboring Iran, both share some historical, cultural, ethnic, and even religious commonalities with Iranian people. In this study, the main question is that in case of failure of the West in confrontation with Russia in Ukraine, Syria, and Iraq, will the West, to compensate its failure, use these crises of the South Caucasus region to inflict the security and interests of Russia? Almost certainly, if the victories of Russian-oriented groups in different areas of the Ukraine crisis as well as the occurrence of significant victories for the government and the people of Syria and Iraq in fighting terrorism such as ISIS and Al-Nusra groups particularly success in reclaiming the occupied cities from terrorists, the West will surely take actions against interests and security of Russia. The triggering one of the dormant crises of south Caucasus by the west is more likely than other crises exist within the borders of the Russian federation and central Asia.