A New “Cult of the Offensive?” Elite Perceptions of Artificial Intelligence in Military Affairs in the United States and the People’s Republic of China

Abstract

Abstract The use of artificial intelligence (AI) in military affairs is largely limited to logistics, transport, reconnaissance, and other support functions at present. Yet, the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are also making significant progress in developing autonomous combat vehicles and other offensive applications of AI. The ambiguous nature and multifaceted applications of AI in military affairs could be seen as either increasing or decreasing the relative cost of offensive military action. The critical question, therefore, is not a technical determination of whether the emerging uses of AI favor the offensive or defensive force, but rather an assessment of how AI is perceived by policymakers. Similar to the World War I era cult of the offensive, ambiguous emerging technology may drive leaders to focus on the offensive advantages of that technology when expectations of conflict are rising. This paper examines the policy elite discourse surrounding the military applications of AI in both the United States and the PRC between 2014 and 2022. It finds that over this period, elite discussion of the use of AI in military affairs has shifted in both states in ways that indicate more focus on the offensive rather than defensive applications of this emerging technology. While by no means determinative, it is an indicator that perceptions of the offense–defense balance may be moving in a destabilizing direction.