A Multi-objective Stochastic Programming Approach for Expressway System Planning with Risk Management

Abstract

This study deals with the problem of expressway system planning with risk management. A new multi-objective stochastic programming model is proposed. Transport demand, travel time and future cost are considered as uncertain parameters in expressway investment decision. To develop a robust model, an additional objective function is added into the traditional SO problem. This multi-objective model includes: (i) the minimization of the sum of current investment cost and the travel time of road users, which is defined as the expected total cost; (ii) the minimization of the VaR (value-at-risk) of the total future cost risk. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the ability of the proposed model to expressway system planning.