A Monte Carlo analysis of air pollution impacts from Belgian passenger cars in 2010

Abstract

Previous studies on the emissions and environmental external costs of transportation for Belgium have indicated that the introduction of stricter standards for new vehicles can cope with the growing transportation demand for passenger cars but not for goods transport. In this paper, we check how robust these conclusions are taking into account the inherent uncertainties in estimations of car parks, kilometres driven and emissions. In our approach, the emissions are weighted on the basis of the external cost, as calculated with the ExternE methodology 2000. This methodology takes into account to what extent the public is exposed to emissions from transportation, and its effects on public health, agriculture and materials. Impacts on ecosystems are not accounted for. The ExternE methodology is developed to estimate marginal impacts that are site and technology specific. For our purpose, these data are aggregated which adds additional uncertainty. Many business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios for 2000-2010 show a marked