A conceptual LUTI model based on neural networks

Abstract

This paper deals with Land-use-Transport-Interaction (LUTI) and presents a conceptual model of a data driven LUTI modelling tool based on neural networks. A starting point is the general opinion of experts on the state of the art LUTI models; currently used land use transportation models are too aggregate in substance. Therefore to enhance the interaction between transport and land-use, researchers propose the refinement of the models; internalising more comprehensive relationships. However, the lack of a good theoretical framework impedes the development and consequently the use of these models on a large scale. This fact has fuelled questions: (i) does transport planning need these comprehensive descriptions of land use; (ii) is it necessary to disaggregate and refine the models further in order to be able to do consistent transport planning; (iii) which land use characteristics should at least be internalised; and (iv) which modelling method is suitable for implementation. Based on literature, the hypothesis is that the first question can be answered by ’no’ and no further refinements are needed. Literature shows that the main drivers for land-use changes are the location choice of both households and firms. Therefore only these two building blocks are used in relation with the transport component. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) will be used as the modelling technique. ANNs are data driven techniques that find relationships in data during an auto calibration process. Therefore ANNs can work without having a sound theoretical framework. This characteristic offers possibilities for LUTI modelling that lacks a sound theoretical framework. The research leads to a conceptual model. A literature review shows that the individual building blocks of the conceptual LUTI model can be modelled using neural networks. However, an integration of the building blocks has not been established yet. Further research has to result in the actual implementation of the proposed model.