A method to predict electric vehicles’ market penetration as well asits impact on energy saving and CO2 mitigation

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Introduction:Although forecasting electric vehicles’ growth in China was frequentlyreported in the literature, predicting electric vehicles market penetrationas well as corresponding energy saving and carbon dioxide mitigationpotential in a more suitable method is not well understood.Methods:This study chose the double species model to predict electric vehicles’growth trajectory under mutually competitive conditions between electricvehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles. For comparison, it set twoscenarios: with 200 and 300 vehicles per thousand persons at 2050. To givedetails on energy saving and carbon dioxide mitigation potential induced byelectric vehicles’ market penetration, it further divided electric vehiclesinto five subgroups and internal combustion engine vehicles into sevensubgroups, therein forming respective measurement formulas.Results:This paper solved the double species model and thus got its analyticalformula. Then it employed the analytical formula to conduct an empiricalstudy on electric vehicles market penetration in China from year 2010 to2050. Under scenario 300, electric vehicles growth trajectory will emerge aquick growth stage during 2021–2035, thereafter keeping near invariant till2050. Meanwhile, current internal combustion engine vehicles’ quick growthwill continue up to 2027, then holding constant during 2028–2040, afterwardsfollowing a 10-year slowdown period. Scenario 200 has similar features, buta 2-year delay for electric vehicles and a 5-year lead time for internalcombustion engine vehicles were found. On average, scenario 300 will save114.4 Mt oil and 111.5 Mt carbon dioxide emissions, and scenario 200 willsave 77.1 Mt oil and 73.4 Mt carbon dioxide emissions each year. Beyond2032, annual 50.0% of road transport consumed oil and 18.6% of carbondioxide emissions from this sector will be saved under scenario 300.Discussion:Compared with scenario 200, scenario 300 was more suitable to predictelectric vehicle market penetration in China. In the short-term electricvehicle penetration only brings about trivial effects, while in thelong-term it will contribute a lot to both energy security and carbondioxide mitigation. The contribution of this article provided a moresuitable methodology for predicting electric vehicle market penetration,simulated two coupled trajectories of electric vehicles and internalcombustion engine vehicles, and discussed relative energy-saving and climateeffects from 2010 to 2050.