Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) Prediction Based on the Double Species Model

Abstract

With climate change and energy security being growing concerns, Electric Vehicles (EVs) growth has taken on an accelerated pace. This research aims to predict Chinese EVs and Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) stock in the forth coming 40 years. We introduce the double species model to fulfil this program, by solving the model and computer simulating, two trajectories for their growth under different scenarios400 vehicles and 500 vehicles per thousand people at 2050 year are obtained. It reveals that, (i) ICEVs is already in booming stage and will last 16-18 years. (ii) EVs has a golden stage which will last 13-14 years, and before this prospective stage, there is an initial slow growth period which will probably last 10-11 years. (iii) Under each scenario, the difference between EVs and ICEVs stock at year 2030 is 8.63%-10.13%, which confirms that Chinese ambitious EVs development program may be realized if government provides strong policy supports on this new industry. Its contribution is a new method to predict EVs as well as getting two interactive trajectories for EVs and ICEVs growth.