A method for mapping fire hazard and risk across multiple scales and its application in fire management

Abstract

This paper presents modeling methods for mapping fire hazard and fire risk using a research model called FIREHARM (FIRE Hazard and Risk Model) that computes common measures of fire behavior, fire danger, and fire effects to spatially portray fire hazard over space. FIREHARM can compute a measure of risk associated with the distribution of these measures over time using 18 years of gridded DAYMET daily weather data used to simulate fuel moistures to compute fire variables. We detail the background, structure, and application of FIREHARM and then present validation results of six of the FIREHARM output variables that revealed accuracy rates ranging from 20 to 80% correct depending on the quality of input data and the behavior of the fire behavior simulation framework. Overall accuracies appeared acceptable for prioritization analysis and large scale assessments because precision was high. We discuss advantages and disadvantages of the fire hazard and risk approaches and a possible agenda for future development of comprehensive fire hazard and risk mapping is presented.