Abstract
Fire risk prediction is significant for fire prevention and fire resource allocation. Fire risk maps are effective methods for quantifying regional fire risk. Laoshan National Forest Park has many precious natural resources and tourist attractions, but there is no fire risk assessment model. This paper aims to construct the forest fire risk map for Nanjing Laoshan National Forest Park. The forest fire risk model is constructed by factors (altitude, aspect, topographic wetness index, slope, distance to roads and populated areas, normalized difference vegetation index, and temperature) which have a great influence on the probability of inducing fire in Laoshan. Since the importance of factors in different study areas is inconsistent, it is necessary to calculate the significance of each factor of Laoshan. After the significance calculation is completed, the fire risk model of Laoshan can be obtained. Then, the fire risk map can be plotted based on the model. This fire risk map can clarify the fire risk level of each part of the study area, with 16.97% extremely low risk, 48.32% low risk, 17.35% moderate risk, 12.74% high risk and 4.62% extremely high risk, and it is compared with the data of MODIS fire anomaly point. The result shows that the accuracy of the risk map is 76.65%.
Highlights
This paper aims to construct a forest fire risk model so that the fire department can improve the fire management ability based on the generated fire risk map
The fire occurrence is affected by topographic factors, meteorological factor, human activity factors, and vegetation factor (e.g., Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDV I))
The accuracy of the fire risk model can be verified by conducting a crossing between the areas of the fire risk map with the heat map constructed by fire points
Summary
Academic Editors: Rosa Lasaponara and Jagannath Aryal. Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Forests are important strategic resources for social development, and have great influence on the protection of species diversity [1]. Climate and human activities are important factors that can cause forest fires, such as temperature, precipitation, sacrifice [2,3]. Combustibles are significant for fires, which are trees and turf in the forest. Different trees have different probabilities of fire ignition due to the difference in moisture content [4]
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