Abstract
Fatal landslides are a widespread geohazard that have affected millions of people and have claimed the lives of thousands around the globe. A change in climate has significantly increased the frequency and magnitude of rainfall, which affect the susceptibility of slopes to shallow landslides. This paper presents a methodological framework to assess the future changes in extreme and seasonal rainfall magnitudes with climate model projections. This framework was applied to project summer rainfall over Wanzhou County, China, using an ensemble of four regional climate models (RCMs) from the East Asian domain of the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) under the Phase 5 Coupled Intercomparison Modeling Project (CMIP5). The results find that extreme daily rainfall was projected to decrease in the mid-21st century, with an uncertainty measured by a coefficient of variation between 5% and 25%. The mean seasonal rainfall is projected to increase in the mid-21st century up to a factor of 1.4, and up to a factor of 1.8 in the late-21st century. The variation in the mid-21st century ranged from 10% to 35%, and from 30% to 50% in the late-21st century. This case study delivered a proof-of-concept for a methodological framework to derive shallow landslide-triggering rainfall scenarios under climate change conditions. The resulting spatially distributed climate change factors (CCFs) can be used to incorporate future rainfall scenarios in slope susceptibility models and climate impact assessments.
Highlights
Fatal landslides have affected millions of people and have claimed the lives of thousands around the globe [1]
The antecedent rainfall and extreme daily rainfall (EDR) conditions corresponding to the shallow landslides recorded antecedent rainfall and EDR conditions corresponding to the shallow landslides recorded in the inventory for the period of 1995–2005 were reconstructed with the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD) gridded in the inventory for the period of 1995–2005 were reconstructed with the CMFD gridded precipitation dataset.AAtemporal temporaluncertainty uncertainty
This paper presented a framework to derive future landslide-triggering rainfall scenarios from climate model outputs
Summary
Fatal landslides have affected millions of people and have claimed the lives of thousands around the globe [1]. Growing landslide frequency in a changing climate is expected with the increasing rainfall magnitudes and anthropogenic activities, which will destabilize sloped regions globally [2–7]. In order to conduct a quantitative analysis of the effect of changes in climate on landslide susceptibility, the projection of rainfall scenarios is essential for physically based models and susceptibility assessments [3,8,9]. It is foreseen that the initiation of shallow landslides will have a critical impact on changes in extreme rainfall and antecedent rainfall conditions [10–18]. Quantifying the evolution of rainfall variables as an input to physically based landslide models is a critical task. Studies have proposed frameworks and developed methods to assess slope stability under changing climate conditions. Initial assessment studies assess rainfall thresholds for slope susceptibility and incorporate dynamically downscaled climate models to estimate rainfall and typhoon events using extreme rainfall distributions [19,20]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
