Abstract
In response to extreme climate change, China has set a goal of reaching emission peak by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Energy conservation and emission reduction of building heating in northern China are key to achieving this goal. Based on building area prediction and energy consumption intensity, this paper establishes a model for calculating heating energy consumption and carbon emissions in northern residential buildings at the macro level, which provides a basis for formulating policies related to heating and emission reduction in northern buildings. Based on the research method of scenario projection, combining the carbon emission subsets and future heating energy mix projections in northern China, the heating energy consumption in northern China decreases to 175, 149 and 135 Mtce in 2050 under the baseline, medium control and strict control scenarios, respectively. The heating energy consumption in the northern region should be controlled at least under the medium control scheme. Under this scenario, building heating carbon emissions in the north could be reduced to 450 MtCO2 by 2050, or 280 MtCO2 if more stringent abatement technologies are adopted. In order to achieve this goal, a combination of energy-saving technologies must be used. The use of biomass and solar technologies should be emphasized in rural heating, while envelope renovation makes the greatest contribution to heating energy savings, with envelope renovation contributing up to 92 Mtce to urban heating.
Highlights
In response to extreme climate change, in 2018 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a report showing that the world must limit global warming to 1.5 ◦C [1]
The intensity of heating energy consumption in rural dwellings is increasing, due to the decreasing residential area, heating energy consumption in rural dwellings will peak at about 59.92 Mtce in 2026 and is expected to be controlled to 52.3 Mtce in 2050
Heating energy consumption in rural dwellings will peak at 58.57 Mtce in 2022 and decline continuously under various energy efficiency measures to 56.59 Mtce in 2030 and 48.39 Mtce in 2050
Summary
In response to extreme climate change, in 2018 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a report showing that the world must limit global warming to 1.5 ◦C [1]. Countries can only achieve this goal if they achieve zero carbon emissions by the midcentury To this end, China announced at the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly that it would take stronger policy measures to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 [2]. In the northern part of China, due to the winter heating demand, the adjustment of its heating energy use structure and carbon emission reduction is the key to achieving the national carbon emission target. The statistics and prediction of heating energy consumption and the carbon emission data of northern buildings are important for a comprehensive understanding of the current situation of building energy consumption in northern China, discovering the problematic aspects of building energy use, controlling building carbon emissions and guiding the development of building energy conservation work, and the research results can provide strong data support for this
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