A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACTS OF A CONSUMPTION TAX INCREASE AND A PRODUCTIVITY SHOCK: CALIBRATED FOR THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY

Abstract

Objective: Analyze the effects of high consumption tax on key macroeconomic variables. Method: The analysis employs both a Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) model and a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, calibrated to the Brazilian economy. The models simulate the impact of an increase in the consumption tax on key macroeconomic variables and the impact of a productivity shock in an economy with and without taxation, respectively. Results and Discussion: The results show that an increase in the consumption tax leads to a gradual decline in the capital stock and a sharp reduction in labor supply. Furthermore, productivity shocks have weaker positive effects on investment, output, consumption, and the capital stock in an economy with high taxation compared to one without it. The discussion emphasizes the importance of these findings in understanding the trade-offs between taxation and economic activity. Research Implications/Value: The findings suggest that effective allocation of tax revenues—such as investments in infrastructure, education, and technology—is essential to mitigate the negative impacts of consumption taxes on economic performance and foster long-term productivity and growth.