Abstract
Previous studies have identified eight parameters as being the most influential on the Icelandic economy in the light of prevailing climate change. This study aims to investigate these economic parameters in relation to the Arctic Region and the Icelandic economy. The study is rooted in the theoretical framework of decision analysis and is intended to contribute to strategic and tactical decision making in the context of Iceland and developments resulting from climate changes in the Arctic Region. The study results could eventually lead do a “What if” decision model, where multiple scenarios can be analyzed by inserting/entering different probabilities of a particular outcome. The parameters under screening/review are interdependent, and to construct a decision model these interdependencies must be assessed. The Delphi method was employed, along with the cross-impact analysis, to shed light on the interconnections between eight of these parameters. Diverse views are revealed concerning the impacts between parameters, although a consensus was reached in the second round of the survey. In some instances, the level of agreement was high, while other estimates showed a wide range of responses. The diversity in answers suggests a higher level of uncertainty regarding some parameters and events compared to others. The survey also indicates how challenging the Delphi and cross-impact methods are in terms of the involvement of experts. However, when data is scarce, these methods provide significant insight.
Highlights
1.1 BackgroundInterest in the Arctic Region has increased immensely over recent years (Ding et al, 2017)
This study aims to investigate some of the economic parameters, and their interrelations, pertaining to a decision model representing developments in the Arctic over the 20 years, based on previous studies by Grímsdóttir (2014) and Guðmundsson (2015)
The first question was about how oil and gas exploration in the Arctic would impact the other factors with regard to the Icelandic economy over the 20 years
Summary
Interest in the Arctic Region has increased immensely over recent years (Ding et al, 2017). This is due to a substantial decrease in the multiyear ice area in the Arctic, with a record decline in 2008 and again in 2012 (Comiso, 2012). The Arctic coasts will likely be free of ice all summer by the middle of this century (Laulajainen, 2009). This has opened the doors to industrial opportunities, as well as to commercial sailing through the Arctic Sea Route. There is great uncertainty regarding the consequences of increasing activity in the Arctic, and how this will affect the environment, society and economy in the regions surrounding the Arctic (Lloyds, 2011; Jóhannesdóttir & Cook, 2015)
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