Developing Expert Scenarios Facing Iran’s Petroleum Industry

Abstract

This research discusses future development of Iran’s petroleum industry by using strategic management approaches relying on scenario-based planning models. The theoretical frame of this research is a normative paradigm in upper range documents advocate approach. Delphi methods, cross-impact analysis, and scenario-based planning have offered flexible and comprehensive planning combinations in proposing new styles in foresighting products development. In addition, Micmac software was employed to analyze dates. In this research, 235 influencing factors on a product development trend were selected using a PESTEL model and a Delphi approach, then the effects of these factors on each other were tested that eventually 22 key factors were selected. Among 22 key factors, 2 main factors including “political relations” and “the government’s dependence on petroleum” were selected using a cross-impact analysis. After that, a 2×2 matrix was formed that contains four scenarios including a playful rabbit, a runaway snake, a noble horse, and a sleeping lion. This research can enhance decision making abilities of top managers through identifying key signals of how each scenario appear in future of Iran’s petroleum industry. Results show that management team of petroleum products requires serious etiology and attitude rehabilitation. Key words : Futurology; Scenario planning; Iran’s petroleum products; Key factors; PESTEL model; Micmac software