A causal structure-based multiple-criteria decision framework for evaluating the water-related ecosystem service tradeoffs in a desert oasis region

Abstract

Study regionQira oasis, a typical catchment alluvial fan composed by agriculture and natural shrubs at the south margin of Taklimakan Desert, China Study focusWater management modeling involves causal interaction effects of various water-related ecosystem services (ESs) under multiple-criteria water management alternatives, measuring expected benefits of water-related ESs. Many multi-criteria decision tools have been developed to mitigate some of major challenges of ESs tradeoffs. However, few formal ES trade-off frameworks have focused on the multiple-criteria alternatives assessment and indifference point identifications of water-related ES. This paper proposes a causal structure-based multiple-criteria decision framework to model water-related ESs, and to detect the points where the decision makers would be indifferent between two alternatives and to compare with the optimum recommendation value using Bayesian networks (BNs) with analytic hierarchy process (AHP). New hydrological insights for the regionThe study confirms that the proposed causal structure-based multiple-criteria decision framework is a promising approach to modeling possible climate, irrigation, and water policy scenarios and to examining influences of those scenarios on water-related ESs. The framework can be used to effectively recommend optimum water management alternatives and to identify the indifference points by combining BNs into AHP under stakeholder participation. The framework also provides a qualitative and quantitative assessment to reduce the conflicts and uncertainties of multiple-criteria weights in diagnosing water-related ES trade-offs, owing to different stakeholder preferences.