Abstract
Bayesian statistics offer a novel means of estimating return values of wave heights and hence of establishing design criteria for offshore structures. The Bayesian method has significant advantages over the classical method since it enables all types of uncertainty (physical, parameter, distribution) associated with the design wave prediction to be handled in a consistent manner in the same analysis. The basic principles of the Bayesian method for drawing inferences are outlined step-by-step. It is shown how Bayesian estimators of return values for wave heights are established by taking an expectation over all parameters and contending distributions. When the Bayesian procedure is applied to large data sets, such as wave data sets, computational difficulties could be encountered, making a “remedial” procedure necessary. However, the Bayesian procedure has been used successfully with wave data sets from the northern North Sea. Furthermore, the associated remedial procedure is such that the program can be made suitable for many existing computers, e.g. desk computers.
Published Version
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