6 - A Model of Metropolitan Growth and Migration

Abstract

Migration has important influences on demographic and social factors, as well as on more purely economic variables, and the many variables in turn interact with one another. One important reason for the lack of comprehensive studies dealing with the effects of migration is that the appropriate data simply do not exist, particularly for the United States. Such studies would require a fairly long time series for a number of variables and for a number of geographic areas. Good time series data on migration within the U.S. are almost nonexistent and hence, even the most basic data requirements cannot be met. The interaction between the causes and effects of migration suggests that an appropriate specification of an urban growth model would take into account the various interdependent factors involved in the growth process. Hence, a simultaneous-equations model of urban growth and migration was developed in a study described in the chapter. Because the study employed Census data, the period of analysis is 10 years.