5 - Application of Stochastic Patch Occupancy Models to Real Metapopulations

Abstract

The application of a stochastic patch occupancy model (SPOM) to a real metapopulation consists of four parts. First, the patch occupancy data must be collected. Second, the SPOM must be formulated. Third, given the mathematical representation of the SPOM that results from the second step, the model must be parameterized using the dataset at hand and/or independent information about these parameters. Fourth, predictions can be made with the model by considering different scenarios. The reliability of these predictions must be assessed through uncertainty analysis. This chapter assumes the dataset and the SPOM to be given and concentrates on the third part by reviewing the various methods that have been developed to parameterize SPOMs using snapshot and/or turnover data. It then focuses on some of the problems still remaining, and their consequences for the fourth part, making model predictions for real metapopulations. The chapter shows that the model predictions are useful in determining the best conservation strategies for the real metapopulation. For this, it compares the distribution pattern in 2002 with the distribution pattern predicted from the model calibrated with data from 1981 to 1983 and 1986. The chapter ends with a discussion on the four parts in the application of SPOMs and an overview of the insights gained by the application of SPOMs.