419 STOP-Bang Score and History of Radiation Predicts Risk of Obstructive Sleep Apnea in Cancer Patients: A Machine Learning Study

Abstract

Abstract Introduction Cancer patients are at an increased risk of moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). The STOP-Bang score is a commonly used screening questionnaire to assess risk of OSA in the general population. We hypothesize that cancer-relevant features, like radiation therapy (RT), may be used to determine the risk of OSA in cancer patients. Machine learning (ML) with non-parametric regression is applied to increase the prediction accuracy of OSA risk. Methods Ten features namely STOP-Bang score, history of RT to the head/neck/thorax, cancer type, cancer stage, metastasis, hypertension, diabetes, asthma, COPD, and chronic kidney disease were extracted from a database of cancer patients with a sleep study. The ML technique, K-Nearest-Neighbor (KNN), with a range of k values (5 to 20), was chosen because, unlike Logistic Regression (LR), KNN is not presumptive of data distribution and mapping function, and supports non-linear relationships among features. A correlation heatmap was computed to identify features having high correlation with OSA. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed on the correlated features and then KNN was applied on the components to predict the risk of OSA. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) - Area Under Curve (AUC) and Precision-Recall curves were computed to compare and validate performance for different test sets and majority class scenarios. Results In our cohort of 174 cancer patients, the accuracy in determining OSA among cancer patients using STOP-Bang score was 82.3% (LR) and 90.69% (KNN) but reduced to 89.9% in KNN using all 10 features mentioned above. PCA + KNN application using STOP-Bang score and RT as features, increased prediction accuracy to 94.1%. We validated our ML approach using a separate cohort of 20 cancer patients; the accuracies in OSA prediction were 85.57% (LR), 91.1% (KNN), and 92.8% (PCA + KNN). Conclusion STOP-Bang score and history of RT can be useful to predict risk of OSA in cancer patients with the PCA + KNN approach. This ML technique can refine screening tools to improve prediction accuracy of OSA in cancer patients. Larger studies investigating additional features using ML may improve OSA screening accuracy in various populations Support (if any):