Mortality Risk Assessment Using Deep Learning-Based Frequency Analysis of EEG and EOG in Sleep

Abstract

Abstract Study Objectives To assess whether the frequency content of electroencephalography (EEG) and electrooculography (EOG) during nocturnal polysomnography (PSG) can predict all-cause mortality. Methods Power spectra from PSGs of 8,716 participants, included from the MrOS Sleep Study and the Sleep Heart Health Study (SHHS), were analyzed in deep learning-based survival models. The best-performing model was further examined using SHapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) for data-driven sleep-stage specific definitions of power bands, which were evaluated in predicting mortality using Cox Proportional Hazards models. Results Survival analyses, adjusted for known covariates, identified multiple EEG frequency bands across all sleep stages predicting all-cause mortality. For EEG, we found an all-cause mortality hazard ratio (HR) of 0.90 (CI95% 0.85–0.96) for 12–15 Hz in N2, 0.86 (CI95% 0.82–0.91) for 0.75–1.5 Hz in N3, and 0.87 (CI95% 0.83–0.92) for 14.75–33.5 Hz in REM sleep. For EOG, we found several low-frequency effects including an all-cause mortality HR of 1.19 (CI95% 1.11–1.28) for 0.25 Hz in N3, 1.11 (CI95% 1.03–1.21) for 0.75 Hz in N1, and 1.11 (CI95% 1.03–1.20) for 1.25–1.75 Hz in Wake. The gain in the concordance index (C-index) for all-cause mortality is minimal, with only a 0.24% increase: The best single mortality predictor was EEG N3 (0-0.5 Hz) with C-index of 77.78% compared to 77.54% for confounders alone. Conclusion Spectral power features, possibly reflecting abnormal sleep microstructure, are associated with mortality risk. These findings add to a growing literature suggesting that sleep contains incipient predictors of health and mortality.