3‐D Atmospheric Modeling of the Global Budget of N2O and Its Isotopologues for 1980–2019: The Impact of Anthropogenic Emissions

Abstract

AbstractNitrous oxide (N2O) is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and a major ozone‐depleting substance. Its main sources include anthropogenic activities (mostly agriculture) and natural emissions from ocean and soils. However, emission estimates for individual sources are highly variable due to uncertainties in N2O lifetime estimates and partitioning among sources. We derive annual global N2O emissions for 1990–2019 using NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML) surface N2O observations and the N2O lifetime calculated in the NASA GEOS‐5 chemistry climate model. The inferred global mean N2O emissions has gradually increased from ∼15.8 TgN/yr in the early 1990s to ∼17.8 TgN/yr in the 2010s. This implies that anthropogenic N2O emissions have grown rapidly from ∼6.7 TgN/yr in the 1990s to about ∼8.7 TgN/yr in the 2010s, a ∼30% increase. With specially designed N2O isotopic tracers in 3‐D GEOSCCM, we estimate that, on global average, stratospheric enrichment contributes about +7.7‰/yr, +7.6‰/yr, +8.0‰/yr to tropospheric δ15Nα, δ15Nβ, and δ18O budget, respectively. To balance the global mean isotopic signature for pre‐industrial terrestrial sources of δ15Nα ∼ 6.7‰, δ15Nβ ∼ −12.6‰, δ18O ∼ 35.4‰, our 3‐dimensional isotopic budget simulation using the GEOSCCM suggests global mean anthropogenic isotopic signatures in the recent decades are δ15Nα ∼ −18‰, δ15Nβ ∼ −20‰, δ18O ∼ 19‰. These anthropogenic isotopic estimates are significantly lighter than results from one‐box atmospheric model‐based estimates with the largest difference seen for δ15Nβ. More surface isotopic measurements are needed to better quantify the N2O isotopic signatures.