17 - An experiment on, and psyschometric analysis of, the contingent focus model

Abstract

In the previous chapter, I explained a model for describing decision-making behavior that is situation-dependent and in some cases leads to irrational decisions or choosing the worst option. The first purpose of this contingent focus model is to explain the framing effect, but it does not necessarily explain only the framing effect but also the decision-making that varies depending on the factors of the situation. To test the basic hypotheses of the contingent focus model, that is, the focusing hypothesis and the situation-dependent nature of focus hypothesis, we conducted various experiments in which we tried to manipulate attention to consequences and risks. The results showed that, regardless of the positive-negative frame condition in each experiment, the tendency toward risk orientation was stronger in the case of outcome emphasis than in the case of risk emphasis. The results of the psychometric analysis of the focal parameter with some additional assumptions showed that the focal parameter, which refers to the degree of focus on the outcome, was larger in the outcome emphasis condition. These results suggest that risk attitudes change depending on the relative focus on the outcome or risk, or the attention paid to them. From this perspective, the contingent focus model suggests that it can be possible to avoid “bad decisions” by changing the way information is presented and which information is emphasized.