16 - The contingent focus model and bad decisions

Abstract

In the previous chapter, I mentioned the possibility that due to the situational dependence of decision-making, the jury theorem does not hold for group decision-making, and that avoidance of worst case decisions cannot be acquired through interaction within a group. I also pointed out that the situational dependence of decision-making is caused by shifts in attention, such as the framing effect. In this chapter, I will explain the contingent focus model, which is a descriptive model of the phenomenon that gives rise to the situation-dependence of decision-making such as the framing effect, and discuss its relationship with making bad decisions. The contingent focus model explains preference reversal phenomenon that is depending on the shift of attention to the attribute.