НЕКОТОРЫЕ ТЕНДЕНЦИИ ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКОГО РАЗВИТИЯ СЕЛЬСКОГО РАЙОНА В XXI ВЕКЕ

Abstract

Implementation of the "Concept of demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period until 2025" and Priority national projects in health and demography helped to reduce mortality and increase birth rate. However, these processes in rural areas had their own characteristics due to the long-term systemic crisis. Purpose: to assess the state and trends in demographic development of the rural district of the Krasnoyarsk region. Material and methods. The paper uses data of the State statistics for the period 2010-2018. The main demographic indicators of the Nizhneingashsky district of the Krasnoyarsk region were studied: population size, population structure by age and gender, birth and death rates. Results. The district population has a long-term sustainable tendency towards decreasing (15.9% during the study period). It is mainly due to the migration outflow of the working – age population, the size of which decreased by 24.6 %. The district mortality rate is high (16.7‰), however, during the study period it has dropped by 30.3 %. There is an ongoing tendency towards reduction in the share of people of working ages (up to 55.9%) in the population structure, primarily due to moving to other territories, and increase in the share of the elderly and senile (up to 23.9%), which makes it possible to classify this area as the one with a very high level of demographic old age population. Analysis of indicators of the special birth rate F allows us to characterize it as low (˂ 64‰). The growth rate of this indicator added up to 20.9 % in 2013 compared to 2010, while it decreased by 45.9% from 2013 to 2018. From 2010 to 2017, the total birth rate in the Nizhneingashsky district decreased by -1.02‰ (∆b), or 7.5 %. Conclusion. The ongoing decline in the share of fertile females is the main demographic factor that has spurred the decline in the birth rate since 2013. Opening new jobs in the district will stimulate the influx of people from other territories as well as reduce the migration outflow of the working-age population, rather increasing the population then just preserving its size. Increase in the share of the working-age population of reproductive age will contribute to the increased birth rate, because it is traditionally higher in rural areas. Improving demographic situation in the district requires development of socio-economic measures aimed at stimulating the birth of the third and subsequent children.