Оценка влияния пожаров на лесные экосистемы c учетом уровня развития лесотранспортной сети

Abstract

Currently, we can state the fact that there is no developed unified scientific approach to determining the degree of the total ecological and economic damage from forest fires based on the ecosystem approach, taking into account the multipurpose of forest benefits and the dependence of achieving the effectiveness of forestry and fire-fighting measures on the level of development of the transportation network on the territory of the forest fund. Hence, we can conclude that the development of a method for assessing the magnitude of ecological and economic damage from fires to forest ecosystems considering the factor of planning a forest road network is an urgent scientific issue. In this regard, the purpose of the article is to develop a methodology for assessing the degree of ecological and economic damage from fires to forest ecosystems, taking into account the planning factor of the forest road network and its testing. Within this framework, the article outlines the issues under study concerning the need for forecasting: the probability of forest fires, the area of their spread over the territory of the forest fund, the assessment of the degree of the possible ecological and economic damage to forest ecosystems. The study of these issues is necessary for the timely implementation of fire-prevention and restoration measures, as well as the determination of the value of optimal reserves sufficient to eliminate the consequences of forest fires, the assessment of the correlation of the indicator of total ecological and economic damage from fires with the level of development of the transportation network, which directly affects this indicator. The article presents a mathematical model developed by the authors, which forms the basis of the proposed method for assessing the degree of ecological and economic damage from fires considering the factor of planning the creation and development of the forest road network. The presented methodological development is based on the tools of economic and mathematical modeling, elements of the theory of probability and combinatorics, as well as an integrated interdisciplinary approach to the research object. The article also presents the results of a computational and numerical experiment using the developed methodological apparatus. The methodology proposed by the authors can be used in identifying the most fire-hazardous areas of the forest fund, development of measures to preserve biodiversity, planning logging, reforestation work, etc.