Machine Learning for Predicting Forest Fire Occurrence in Changsha: An Innovative Investigation into the Introduction of a Forest Fuel Factor

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Affected by global warming and increased extreme weather, Hunan Province saw a phased and concentrated outbreak of forest fires in 2022, causing significant damage and impact. Predicting the occurrence of forest fires can enhance the ability to make early predictions and strengthen early warning and responses. Currently, fire prevention and extinguishing in China’s forests and grasslands face severe challenges due to the overlapping of natural and social factors. Existing forest fire occurrence prediction models mostly take into account vegetation, topographic, meteorological and human activity factors; however, the occurrence of forest fires is closely related to the forest fuel moisture content. In this study, the traditional driving factors of forest fire such as satellite hotspots, vegetation, meteorology, topography and human activities from 2004 to 2021 were introduced along with forest fuel factors (vegetation canopy water content and evapotranspiration from the top of the vegetation canopy), and a database of factors for predicting forest fire occurrence was constructed. And a forest fire occurrence prediction model was built using machine learning methods such as the Random Forest model (RF), the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree model (GBDT) and the Adaptive Augmentation Model (AdaBoost). The accuracy of the models was verified using Area Under Curve (AUC) and four other metrics. The RF model with an AUC value of 0.981 was more accurate than all other models in predicting the probability of forest fire occurrence, followed by the GBDT (AUC = 0.978) and AdaBoost (AUC = 0.891) models. The RF model, which has the best accuracy, was selected to predict the monthly forest fire probability in Changsha in 2022 and combined with the Inverse Distance Weight Interpolation method to plot the monthly forest fire probability in Changsha. We found that the monthly spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire probability in Changsha varied significantly, with March, April, May, September, October, November and December being the months with higher forest fire probability. The highest probability of forest fires occurred in the central and northern regions. In this study, the core drivers affecting the occurrence of forest fires in Changsha City were found to be vegetation canopy evapotranspiration and vegetation canopy water content. The RF model was identified as a more suitable forest fire occurrence probability prediction model for Changsha City. Meanwhile, this study found that vegetation characteristics and combustible factors have more influence on forest fire occurrence in Changsha City than meteorological factors, and surface temperature has less influence on forest fire occurrence in Changsha City.