Deriving forest fire probability maps from the fusion of visible/infrared satellite data and geospatial data mining

Abstract

Information on fire probability is of vital importance to environmental and ecological studies as well as to fire management. This study aimed at comparing two forest fire probability mapping techniques, one based primarily on freely distributed EO (Earth observation) data from Landsat imagery, and another one based purely on GIS modeling. The Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) computed from Landsat data was used to detect the high fire severity and probability area based on the NBR difference between pre- and post-fire conditions. The GIS-based modeling was based on a multi criterion evaluation technique, into which other attributes like anthropogenic and natural sources were also incorporated. The ability of both techniques to map forest fire probability was evaluated for a region in India, for which suitable ancillary data had been previously acquired to support a rigorous validation. Subsequently, a conceptual framework for the prediction of high fire probability zones in an area based on a newly introduced herein data fusion technique was constructed. Overall, the EO-based technique was found to be the most suitable option, since it required less computational time and resources in comparison to the GIS-based modeling approach. Furthermore, the fusion approach offered an appropriate path for developing a forest fire probability identification model for long-term pragmatic conservation of forests. The potential fusion of these two modeling approaches may provide information that can be useful to forest fire mitigation policy makers, and assist at conservation and resilience practices.