О влиянии неопределенностей на прогнозы ветрового ресурса и выработки электроэнергии

Abstract

The annual power generation of a wind farm is one of the most important indicators determining the profitability of a wind power project. The methods used to estimate the annual power generation of a wind farm have to consider uncertainties at all stages of the project life cycle. When developing a financial model of a wind power project, it is required to consider information about uncertainties to reduce the error and increase the reliability of the project. Specialists of various countries are improving the efficiency of wind power plants, studying wind energy resources, as well as assessing the efficiency of their use. However, special studies do not pay due attention to the problem of assessing the impact of various uncertainties on the forecasts of wind resource and power generation. Two methods are proposed to calculate uncertainties. They are a deterministic method based on the assumption of independence of various uncertainties, and a Monte Carlo method that simulates the behavior of a physical system many times. The paper considers the uncertainties to be considered during the design of a wind farm and presents the variation ranges. The authors have presented the plots of power generation with various levels of probability of being reached or exceeded the total uncertainty for three variants. It is shown that considering the various uncertainties allows a power generation forecast to be made with increased accuracy. The results obtained are necessary to develop a wind measurement data processing model that allows us to forecast electricity generation by existing wind power plants with increased accuracy.