베이즈 통계학의 교수학적 분석과 학교수학에서의 적용 가능성 탐색

Abstract

This study aims to explore the pedagogical significance of Bayesian statistics, which is increasingly recognized for its practical value in modern society, and to further explore avenues for its application in school mathematics. As part of the didactic analysis, the study attempts historico-genetic, mathematical, and philosophical analyses of Bayesian statistics. In addition, it examines previous studies applying Bayesian perspectives in tasks for elementary and middle school students to identify considerations for teaching Bayesian statistics in school mathematics. The results show that the core ideas of Bayesian statistics lie in the updating of probabilities by data and the consistency of belief updating rules, which follows from defining probability as a subjective measure of belief. Moreover, it is confirmed that these ideas can be informally understood at the elementary and middle school levels by visually representing changes in sample space in contexts, such as risk, which can be linked to predictions in everyday life.