ИМИТАЦИОННОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ФИНАНСОВОГО РЕЗУЛЬТАТА: КОНЦЕПЦИЯ И ИНСТРУМЕНТАРИЙ

Abstract

The research focuses on simulation models aimed at the formation of a financial result by a commercial organization. At the same time, the paper aims to substantiate the approach stated in the topic to determine the probabilities of a negative/zero/positive outcome – financial result – of economic activity for a period of time in the form of a certain number of lead periods. At its core, the study is based on a combination of methods of mathematical statistics and quantitative modeling applied to finance. It is appropriate to consider the results of the work performed, which represent scientific novelty, as a concept and tools that do not require the introduction of additional information into the initial data within the framework of the stated topic, most likely expert/subjective, therefore, additionally distorting the results of calculations, in particular, random number generation sensors, probabilities of dividing extreme (pessimistic and optimistic) events, etc. The question is about the scope of application of the results obtained, since they can be used by economic entities understood in a broad sense, which are able to make decisions on computerization and adjustment of the presented approach to the implemented business processes at their own discretion. Nevertheless (which is seen as a distinctive feature of the research result), it is possible to conclude that simula-tion is theoretically attractive as an option for determining the safest way to form the expected financial result, since it is possible to eliminate the contradictions of choice from among acceptable alternatives. What is important here is the method of achieving the expected financial result, but not the probability of obtaining it (although it is revealed) or quantitative assessment (although it is given). However, the approach contains a potential problem – the need to calculate the financial result for so many scenarios for which there may simply be no time.